There is good news in Ukraine despite what you read or see on the news.
I’ve been invited to share our experiences in Ukraine with a civic group next week. Pray the truth will speak for itself.
A Shift In Mood
John Herbst is the senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Centre and a former US ambassador to Ukraine. He was in Kyiv when leaders from the Coalition of the Willing gathered. Herbst noted a shift in the mood of the city after a winter of relentless bombings.
Ukraine, Kyiv, 24‑02‑2026. President of the European Council Antonio Costa, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Prime Minister of Croatia Andrej Plenkovic visit to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine. During the visit, the leaders participated in an official memorial ceremony and reaffirmed unwavering European support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, security, and just peace.
Many Ukrainians say that they are furious but not disheartened by the bombings throughout the winter that left 100s of thousands without heat or power. The attitude of Ukraine is resolute hope. “They had no choice but to continue the war because, however unpleasant, living under Russian bombs is much better than living under Russian occupation. Besides spring will soon come to Ukraine.”
Good News
The most important factor is the modest good news from several quarters on the battlefield. While commentary in the West over the past year has spoken of small but inevitable Russian gains on the ground, recent developments suggest a less gloomy situation.
Herbst says, “Ukraine launched and expanded several small offensives in late February in the Donbas, the south, and the north, retaking some 200–400 square kilometers of territory. These gains have undermined Moscow’s claims—repeated often—that Russian forces have taken control of Pokrovsk in Donbas and Kupiansk near Kharkiv. They also help puncture the narrative, regrettably shared by the Trump administration in Washington, of inevitable Kremlin battlefield advances. “
An Exorbitant Cost
In some areas, Russia is making advances. However look at the exorbitant cost. An average of nearly 35,000 dead or wounded per month in 2025, according to a report by analysts Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe. “Last spring, there were reports of casualty ratios of one to five or six favoring Ukraine. Recent reporting suggests the ratio has gone up substantially—to the point that Russian recruitment efforts cannot fully replace combat losses, the first time this has happened in the war. Ukraine’s new defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, has indicated that Russian casualties could increase to 50,000 or more a month.”
Russia’s tactic of deploying what are effectively kamikaze waves of troops, to conquer more territory as fast as possible, will only increase its losses.
We pray for Russia to withdraw quickly and for peace to finally come. What we enjoy in Canada is what we want for Ukrainians. An enduring peace and a free Ukraine which is able to rebuild for years to come.
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